Vi använder cookies

Vi använder några viktiga cookies för att den här webbplatsen ska fungera. Vi vill också använda analytiska cookies så att vi kan förstå hur du använder webbplatsen och kan göra förbättringar.

Läs mer i vår cookiepolicy

Anna Arvidsson is a Senior Researcher in the Operation and Maintenance unit, specialising in road climatology and winter roads.

Anna obtained her PhD in 2010 in Road Climatology/Physical Geography at the University of Gothenburg. The title of her thesis was “Winter road conditions and traffic accidents in Sweden and the UK – present and future climate scenarios”. She subsequently continued as a researcher at VTI, primarily focusing on winter road maintenance and climate. In 2019, she was appointed Senior Researcher.

A project that brings together her interest in winter roads, weather and climate is “Winter road maintenance in a changing climate: Historical and future changes in road climate”. Other projects have ranged from pedestrian accidents and anti-slip measures on walking and cycling paths to climate adaptation, as well as contributing to government commissions on regulations for heavy vehicles’ winter tyres.

New technology is opening up opportunities to explore areas that have previously been difficult or impossible to analyse. Within winter road maintenance, rapid development is currently taking place, with new sensors, connected vehicles that can provide data on road conditions, and salt spreaders that automatically apply salt where needed – unlike in the past when the driver had to manage this manually while driving. At the same time as technology creates new opportunities, new problems and questions arise that need to be addressed."

The Winter Model
Anna is, among other things, responsible for the Winter Model, which is a model that calculates and evaluates the most significant consequences for road users, road authorities and society of different strategies and actions within winter road maintenance. At the core of the model is the Road Condition Model, which calculates road conditions hour by hour based on weather data, maintenance actions and traffic.

Publications on the Winter Model

Calculation model

The Winter Model

The Winter Model is a model that calculates and evaluates the most significant consequences for road users, road authorities and society of different strategies and measures within winter road maintenance. The core of the model is the Road Surface Model, which calculates road conditions hour by hour based on weather data, measures and traffic.

Publications on the Winter Model

Winter road maintenance in a changing climate: Historical and future changes in road weather conditions

This project examined how the climate conditions affecting Swedish roads have changed over the past 20 years, based on indications that climate zones are gradually shifting northwards. In practice, this means that milder winter conditions once typical of the Mälardalen region around 30 years ago are now increasingly experienced further north, in areas such as Östersund. The study is based on data collected from 70 of Sweden’s 750 Road Weather Information System (RWIS) stations.

Following the analysis of historical road climate data, future climate scenarios were applied and evaluated using climate projections from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). The results show that increasing weather variability is creating greater challenges for winter road maintenance operations.

Over the last two decades, winter temperatures recorded at road weather stations have increased, leading to less snowfall in southern Sweden and more rainfall across the country as a whole. These trends are expected to continue in the coming decades as climate change progresses.

The most significant changes are projected to occur in northern Sweden, where winters are expected to become warmer and wetter. This will result in more frequent freeze–thaw cycles, increasing the need for preventive anti-icing measures and proactive winter road maintenance. Increased precipitation is also likely to create a greater demand for snow ploughing in areas where temperatures remain low enough for snowfall. In southern Sweden, the overall number of snow and icy road conditions is expected to decrease.

Winter road maintenance in a changing climate – Part 2

The project Winter Road Maintenance in a Changing Climate delivered a study examining how climate change affects road conditions across different parts of Sweden, and how winter maintenance measures and response times may be impacted as a result (Arvidsson, 2025).

Part 2 of the project aims to review current winter road maintenance regulations and assess how well they align with present and future operational needs. The review also includes a socio-economic assessment using the Winter Model (Vintermodellen). The project’s final outcome will provide recommendations to the Swedish Transport Administration regarding potential adjustments to current regulations, supported by the socio-economic analysis.

The project is divided into four work packages:

  • WP1 – Updating the Winter Model
  • WP2 – Literature review and evaluation of current regulations based on the findings from the project Winter Road Maintenance in a Changing Climate
  • WP3 – New socio-economic assessment using the Winter Model
  • WP4 – Recommendations to the Swedish Transport Administration

The overall objective of the project is to review existing regulations and evaluate how well they meet current operational requirements, taking into account future climate scenarios developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and the findings from the project Winter Road Maintenance in a Changing Climate.

Collaboration and networks

Anna has served as Chair of the TRB Standing Committee on Winter Maintenance and Response to Weather Events (AKJ17) since August 2025.

Prior to this, Anna was Chair of the TRB Standing Committee on Winter Maintenance between 2022 and 2025.

Organisation

Research Department of Infrastructure

Unit: Infrastructure Maintenance