New technology can both hinder and help resilience

New technologies such as electrification, automation and digitalisation pose both threats and opportunities for the resilience of the Swedish transport system. Everything depends on how we use the new technologies.

In the BULT research project, researchers at VTI, the Swedish Defence Research Agency, KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Linköping University are investigating how preparedness considerations can be integrated into the development and planning of the transport system. The research is focusing on resilient supply chains, preparedness issues in policy and decision-making, and scenarios relating to future threats to the transport system.

The project began on 1 January 2023 and so has barely made the halfway mark. One of the most advanced work packages concerns the impact of new technology on the resilience and vulnerability of the transport system.

In simple terms: will developments make the transport system more resilient, or less, in the event of war or any other serious crisis? How can we capitalise on the strength of technology and avoid its weaknesses?

Francisco Márquez Fernández, research leader and one of the VTI researchers working on the project, reckons that two concepts are key: distribution and interconnection.

“Sweden is self-sufficient in terms of electricity, which is not and can never be the case when it comes to oil. So in other words, electrification provides us with a great opportunity to strengthen our preparedness. But that said, this could be a weakness as an enemy could access the transport system by attacking the power grid,” he says.

That is why it will be crucial to scatter – or distribute – power generation, power storage (using stationary batteries, for example) and charging facilities over lots of different locations. If one or two facilities are disabled, there will be many others still operating. It is also important to connect different parts of Sweden to one another, and to link Sweden to other countries, by means of efficient power lines for fast and effective electricity transmission.

“At present, we have a high-voltage main grid that runs from north to south. But these highways for electricity need to become significantly denser and more numerous,” says Francisco Márquez Fernández.

“When it comes to batteries, it’ll never be possible to store electricity in the way we store oil or diesel. But the technology is advancing rapidly and has plummeted in price. This leads me to believe that batteries also have an important part to play in preparedness going forward, operating as power buffers that can last for several days.”

So the answer to the initial question is: it depends. New technology creates new vulnerabilities, but in fact they can actually reinforce resilience when utilised properly. In this case, our preparedness may even be better than it is today.

Francisco Márquez Fernández explains how Ukraine has become a major importer of used electric cars from Norway since the outbreak of war. Most petrol and diesel is being used by the military, and so electricity is becoming a more reliable way of driving privately.

“This means that society is expected to keep the power grid running at all costs, simply because it’s used in so many different areas. There are also great opportunities to use car batteries as energy sources for other purposes at home, such as lighting and heating.”

Read more: Better resilience with BULT

Translation: CBG