Utveckling av VTI:s modell för beräkning av trafikarbete på svenska vägar

Urban Björketun
Ulf Hammarström

Each year, VTI delivers a description of both a historical description and a prognosis of the annual vehicle mileage using a forecast model. Based on the results from this model a simplified description is made of the future traffic in HBEFA, which is the basis for the annual calculation of traffic emissions. The purpose of this project was to undertake a general revision of the method, both historical and future, in the forecast model. The assessment shows, for example, that a computational model can continually evolve and improve. Recent data have become available through the meter readings for mileage and better data are now available to take into account heavy trucks used for overseas shipments. A function adaptation of mileage as a function of vehicle age shows a good agreement with the measured driving distances for vehicles up to and including about 25 to 30 years of age. A sensitivity analysis of making various assumptions regarding the mileage and age distribution shows the effect on the amount of fuel consumption and regulated emissions for different categories of vehicles.



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