Trängsel och knapphet på väg, järnväg och i kollektivtrafik: delstudie inom SAMKOST

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The purpose of this study is to take stock of Swedish data and studies that could form the basis of the estimation of marginal costs for congestion on roads and scarcity of railway capacity. Furthermore, the development of methods to estimate and evaluate the congestion in public transport is discussed. The Transport Administration’s investigation from 2013 indicates that there are persistent congestion problems in Stockholm that would be affected by adjustments to the toll cordon, congestion tax levels and differentiation with respect to time and place. A second part quantifies congestion in the road network outside urban areas by the use of extensive flow and velocity measurements from the E4 south of Stockholm as an example. This choice is justified as an example of a highly trafficked road link where the speed reductions occur regularly. The results show that the flows during May to December 2013 regularly were so high that speed dropped below 60 kilometer per hour for long periods. The marginal cost of congestion can be expressed as the change in the cost of a change in density and is highest at densities close to the road’s capacity. When the density is greatest, the marginal cost of one further car is about 10 SEK per kilometer. Compared to the taxes on petrol which is about 0,34 SEK per kilometer, which is considered to cover the marginal costs of all other externalities including carbon emissions. Thus, congestion costs may therefore be considered significant. For train slots, this study has used the Transport Administration’s electronic record of the operators’ requests for train slots from the National train plan for 2013 and the corresponding documentation of the determined slots. We find that the total of allocated slots for the largest operator of passenger trains in Sweden, SJ, received 99 percent of the slots it had applied for and Green Cargo 97 percent. This is not a strong indication of scarcity. For crowding in public transport there are a number of British studies of the valuation of travel in crowded conditions in passenger trains. These valuations have mostly been calculated as a multiplicative factor on time values when the passengers travel without crowding. The report presents studies that show that the willingness to pay may be substantially higher for a shorter travel time if the trip takes place in crowded conditions.

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