Tema Vintermodell - Etapp 3: förbättring, uppdatering och känslighetsanalys

Download
Staffan Möller

The aim of the Winter model is to estimate and put a value on the most important impacts of strategies and measures in winter road management for road users, road management authorities and society at large. A first version of the Winter model, with all its sub models, was published 2006 in VTI report 531 (The Winter model. Stage 2. Final report) http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-6420. Because the level of ambition with the first version of the Winter model was to achieve a working prototype there are improvements to make within different areas or sub models. The improvements consist of actions with a wide variety of work from a few hours to several years of analysis, modelling and programming. The presentation of the project will begin with a list of important short- and long-term bug fixes and improvements to the Winter model and their rank (priority 1–3). The next chapter describes the implemented bug fixes and improvements with priority 1. The report is finished with a sensitivity analysis of the Winter model. Here the uncertainties in the various sub models are estimated. It is found that, in terms of socio- economic total costs, the uncertainties in accident risk and consequences of accidents have greatest influence. Since the purpose of the Winter model is to compare different strategies and actions the socio-economic total costs are not of the most interest. Instead the difference in socio-economic costs between alternatives, that is what benefit is gained from the changes in strategy or action, is of interest. Such a marginal cost analysis has been done with data from the calculation of socio-economic total costs. Here, the benefit can be estimated of more salting which will decrease the proportion of snow and ice on the road and increase the proportion of bare ground. It turns out that the most important components of the socio-economic marginal costs are the reduction in accident costs and secondly the reduction in travel costs.

MEET US


5-6
Dec

Vision Zero for Sustainable Road Safety in the Baltic Sea Region

The conference Vision Zero for Sustainable Road Safety in the Baltic Sea Region is held i Vilnius, Lithuania. VTI is part of the organisation committé and also one of the speakers.

LATEST NEWS


2018-09-20

EU-project VIRTUAL: improving road safety with virtual crash tests

Crash tests are used to improve safety on roads. Therefore the EU now funds a research project to develop virtual methods of crash testing. VTI coordinates the project, called VIRTUAL. The project now invites experts interested in Human Body Modeling to join...


2018-08-28

EU project protects cyclists and pedestrians

According to the World Health Organisation, more than one quarter of road traffic fatalities in 2010 were pedestrians and cyclists. Every year, about 335,000 unprotected road users die because of traffic accidents, which shows the scale of the problem. The EU...


2018-08-21

Swedish organisations in EU project on traffic safety and crash testing

Crash safety testing is one of the tools used to improve safety on roads. The EU is therefore funding a research project that started recently to develop virtual methods of crash testing. The long-term goal is to supplement the physical evaluation of crash...


2018-06-13

International Conference on Electric Road Systems starts today

Electric Road Systems (ERS) is a relatively new concept with many initiatives on the way. To learn from each other and stimulate new collaborations the Swedish Research and Innovation Platform for Electric Roads arranged the first international conference...


2018-05-18

Same survey of road users’ attitudes in 50 countries

At the Road Safety on Five Continents Conference, RS5C, one entire session presented a large survey of road users' attitudes in 38 countries. Results show large differences between countries in many areas, both regarding behavior and attitudes. A new survey...


2018-05-17

Good results with alcohol interlock program according to Swedish study

An alcohol interlock program makes it possible for drink driving offenders to continue their everyday lives. In a Swedish study most of the participants were satisfied with the program and experienced improved health. They also reported drinking alcohol more...