Samhällsekonomisk analys i arbetet med nationell risk- och förmågebedömning: vägledning och förslag på metodik


In 2012 the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) was commissioned by the government to develop and establish a procedure and methodology for national risk assessment in Sweden. In 2013 MSB continued this work and also initiated work to develop a more coherent and reliable process for producing national risk and capability assessments. An assignment was therefore given to VTI where the questions was how economics can be implemented in practice in this more comprehensive work. To provide a basis for discussion, the current system for national risk- and capability assessments undertaken by the public sector is described in the beginning of the report. Next, based on findings in the scientific literature, the report contains a discussion of how economics can be of use in risk assessment and management. Since cost-benefit analysis is the analytical tool used, this overview also contains a short summary on how to perform this type of analysis. Based on this background information a method is proposed on how to analyze a decision problem in this kind of risk context. The method comprises the following logical steps: - Scenario analysis to develop an analytical model of the risk context focusing on a description of the capabilities needed to reduce the probability of and the consequences of a certain hazard. - Capability assessment to quantify the current level of the relevant capabilities. - GAP-analysis to identify if there is a lack of important capabilities and if so, what measures that can address these insufficiencies. - Cost-benefit analysis to evaluate different policy measures to improve the capability. - Stress test and evaluation to test the functioning of the risk management system and the effect of the policy changes made. The analytical model developed in the first step can be used for this purpose.



Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) workshop in Stockholm

An open seminar and workshop in Stockholm will be held on 25-26 April 2018. The workshop deals with the use of CBA as a basis for decision-making in the public sector. The workshop is organized by, among others, Professor Jan-Eric Nilsson, VTI.



Automation and digitalisation are making rail competitive

Road transport is developing rapidly and its productivity has increased sharply. Rail transport, however, has not developed at the same rate. Automation and digitalisation are essential if rail freight in Europe is to survive.


New research is creating a driverless logistics chain

The research project Born to Drive has come up with a system that allows new cars to move, without a driver, from the production line out to the parking area prior to being transported elsewhere. The vision is to automate the entire logistics chain from...


VTI testing automation in EU project

VTI is leading a series of tests in a major EU project on automated driving. The first driving tests were carried out n a test track in Slovenia in December. The project will focus in part on acceptance among different groups in society, in part on...


Freight transportation on road and rail analysed

Freight transport accounts for a large proportion of the emissions, noise and congestion produced by road traffic. Transporting freight in larger but fewer lorries could reduce the problem. At the same time it might entail freight being diverted from more...


Millions for research into maritime transport and the environment

Maritime transport is a major source of emissions of harmful air pollutants and carbon dioxide. In a new project, a research team from the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) and the University of Gothenburg has received SEK 6.4...


New research programme for more efficient travel

The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) is playing an important role in a major new research programme to find radical solutions leading to fewer trips and more efficient travel, along with tools to enable better use of roads and...