Samhällsekonomisk analys i arbetet med nationell risk- och förmågebedömning: vägledning och förslag på metodik

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In 2012 the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) was commissioned by the government to develop and establish a procedure and methodology for national risk assessment in Sweden. In 2013 MSB continued this work and also initiated work to develop a more coherent and reliable process for producing national risk and capability assessments. An assignment was therefore given to VTI where the questions was how economics can be implemented in practice in this more comprehensive work. To provide a basis for discussion, the current system for national risk- and capability assessments undertaken by the public sector is described in the beginning of the report. Next, based on findings in the scientific literature, the report contains a discussion of how economics can be of use in risk assessment and management. Since cost-benefit analysis is the analytical tool used, this overview also contains a short summary on how to perform this type of analysis. Based on this background information a method is proposed on how to analyze a decision problem in this kind of risk context. The method comprises the following logical steps: - Scenario analysis to develop an analytical model of the risk context focusing on a description of the capabilities needed to reduce the probability of and the consequences of a certain hazard. - Capability assessment to quantify the current level of the relevant capabilities. - GAP-analysis to identify if there is a lack of important capabilities and if so, what measures that can address these insufficiencies. - Cost-benefit analysis to evaluate different policy measures to improve the capability. - Stress test and evaluation to test the functioning of the risk management system and the effect of the policy changes made. The analytical model developed in the first step can be used for this purpose.

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