Samhällsekonomisk analys av förändrad frekvens och taxa för regionaltågstrafik i Mälardalen

Samhällsekonomisk analys av förändrad frekvens och taxa för regionaltågstrafik i Mälardalen

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Kjell Jansson
Chris Halldin

Over the past two decades, both the supply of and the travel by regional trains increased significantly in Sweden. The impact of these increases has so far only to a limited extent been analysed with cost-benefit analysis. The purpose of this study is to use demand simulations to analyse the consequences of hypothetical changes in the frequencies and the tariffs, downwards and upwards, for two regional lines in Mälardalen: Västerås to Stockholm and Hallsberg to Stockholm. The impacts are described in terms of projected changes in demand, travelers 'benefit, income and costs of various modes of public transport, externalities, operators' finances (net revenue), government finance (government revenues minus costs) and the social net. The calculations show that it is financially worthwhile to reduce frequencies, but that an increase would lead to financial losses (of net revenue), and that both higher and lower tariffs would mean financial loss. The cost-benefit calculations show that, as for finances, it is beneficial to reduce frequencies but negative to increase them. Tariff increases lead to losses both financially and socially. The only policy for which the direction of the financial and cost-benefit outcomes are different is a tariff reduction. A tariff reduction is assessed to financially unprofitable, but is calculated to be socially beneficial.

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