Prognosmodeller för tillståndsmått i Trafikverkets Pavement Management System: IRI och spårdjup

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In Sweden, the road surface condition is assessed regularly with laser-based profilographs. This has been done since 1987. All roads are, for financial reasons, not assessed every year, but one way to describe the condition of the entire road network is to work with models. The purpose of these assessments is to provide the Swedish Transport Administration’s Pavement Management System (PMS) with data. The main uses of the PMS are: • To provide a description of the overall road condition and its changes to determine if the selected operation and maintenance strategies are successful, and if an acceptable road standard can be offered. • Support the maintenance planning (prioritization and selection of sections for maintenance). • Support for the choice of maintenance method. • Monitoring of performance of construction or maintenance, for example, functional related contracts. • To support research. The Swedish Transport Administration needs a complete description of the road condition in order to demonstrate to the government and parliament how the mission to maintain the roads is achieved. One way to describe the condition of the entire road network is to work with models that forecast the condition the years when measurements are missing. In the choice between using a global or local model to describe the state of development for IRI (International Roughness Index) and rut depth on individual 100-meter segments, the present report shows that a local model is preferred. The coefficient of determination is not high enough in a global model. Also, the researchers cannot see any consequent pattern in the regression coefficients for the explanatory variables we have tried.

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