Prognosmodell för framtida resurs- och kompetensbehov inom järnvägsbranschen

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According to the 2018–2029 National Plan for the Transport System, SEK 125 billion are to be set aside for the operation, maintenance and reinvestments of state railways during that period. This is an increase of about 40 percent compared with the corresponding plan for 2014–2025. Increased funding implies a greater volume of activities and indications have been received from players in the railway industry that all the resources and competences required to carry out planned railway, underground and tramway projects are not available. The Swedish Transport Administration therefore initiated a work process to produce a practical and useful forecast model that would predict the future resource and competence needs of the entire railway industry. Considering the complex structure of the railway industry, the wide variety of areas of activity and all the data (which was gathered manually for this project) needed for a forecast model, it transpired that the work task could not be completed within the framework of the project.

The purpose of the project and this report has therefore been limited to suggesting a structure for the forecast model and, by using examples of four types of project - replacement of switches, replacement of tracks, building of passing loops, and the extension of double tracks - showing how the demand for resources and competences can be forecast. No analysis has been made of the supply side, that is, the current availability of manpower, retirements and study programmes. The reason for this is because there are no statistics that can be readily used to specify these parameters specifically for all the occupational groups and areas of activity of the railway industry. Because of this, the drafted version of the forecast model cannot be linked to the supply side and therefore it cannot show which occupational groups are expected to have a surplus or deficit of resources and competences.

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