Prognosmetoder för spårdjup och IRI: vägytedata 1997–2016

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This report presents a proposal for a prediction method for future values of rut depth and IRI on the paved state road network and various measures of forecast exactness. The method can also be used to fill in missing values backward in time.

An earlier VTI report within the same area concluded that a prediction method should use only data about the development locally and based its prediction on data from the current pavement cycle only. A major difference here is that the method has been expanded to include data from previous pavement cycles in the prediction method, with presentation of the advantages and disadvantages that this entails. Other parts, e.g. how data is prepared, has not been changed in any great extent.

The results are mainly that forecasts do not generally become clearly better, nor clearly worse, by including data from previous pavement cycles. There is nevertheless an advantage in including these data because that makes prediction based on local conditions possible for more sections.

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