Prediktioner av andelen personer som går respektive cyklar till jobbet: resvaneundersökningar i kombination med geografiskt högupplösta registerdata

Download
Gunnar Isacsson

The Swedish Transport Administration has recently developed a tool (“GC-kalk”) for assessing investments in the infrastructure for walking and bicycling. These assessments are inter alia based on the number of individuals that walk or bicycle before the investment. This report uses the Swedish national travel survey combined with register based (administrative) data with high geographic resolution to generate predictions of the number of people walking or cycling to work in a small geographic area. The basic problem is that the register based material that includes the entire Swedish population and all work places does not include information about mode of transport for the journey to work. Therefore the travel survey is used to fill in this information. A main question of this report concerns the quality of predictions on mode choice that you get from a model estimated on a national travel survey. Therefore a set of models are evaluated by cross validation based on the so-called “bootstrap” method. This method also implies that the uncertainty in mode choice predictions that depend on the sample variation in the travel survey easily can be simulated for all individuals in the register based data. The results suggest that the quality of predictions derived from the model that gives the best predictions at the national level vary across different counties. The chosen model is also used to illustrate how predictions of the shares of individuals walking or bicycling to work in a small area can be generated. In addition, the report discusses how the uncertainty in individual predictions can be used to consider other available information when the number of persons walking or bicycling shall be assessed in a specific situation and in a specific origin-destination pair.

MEET US


7
Dec

Shipping and the environment – research meets reality

Centre for Transport Studies (CTS) in co-operation with Ports of Stockholm invite you to the seminar Shipping and the environment – research meets reality.

LATEST NEWS


2017-10-26

Simulation of cut-in by manually driven vehicles in platooning scenarios

A study in a VTI-driving simulator has showed that a platoon will be able to handle a cut in from a manually driven car. The results of this study have recently been presented at two conferences in Japan.


2017-10-16

ERPUG Forum

The five-year anniversary of European Road Profile Users' Group (ERPUG) Forum will take place at Ramboll head quarter, Copenhagen, Denmark October 19-20, 2017.


2017-09-29

Self-driving buses in Sweden next year?

A self-driving, fossil-free bus. This idea might become reality through a forthcoming collaborative project involving the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), Linköping University and several other participants. The project group aim...


2017-09-29

New climate-proof solutions for hard surfaces in cities

High-density road infrastructure that emphasise maximum durability and minimum maintenance create inflexible systems, which put increased stress on urban trees and lead to increased risk for flooding. Over the past five years, the ‘Climate-proof solutions for...


2017-09-29

VTI is preparing for automated vehicles

Automation of traffic systems will lead to major changes. The European Union’s (EU) CoEXist research project began in June 2017 with the aim of preparing cities and road operators for the introduction of self-driving vehicles. The Swedish National Road and...


2017-07-05

Vehicle Driver Monitoring: sleepiness and cognitive load

To prevent road crashes it is important to understand driver related contributing factors, which have been suggested to be the critical reason in 94 per cent of crashes. The overall aim of the project Vehicle Driver Monitoring has been to advance the...