Policies and measures to reduce air emissions from shipping: recommendations for Swedish stakeholders

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The purpose of the “Carrots and sticks” project is to identify the policy instruments and measures that can reduce air emissions from shipping and contribute to the fulfilment of the national Swedish environmental quality objectives Reduced climate impact, Clean Air, Natural acidification only and Zero eutrophication in a cost-effective way. The climate objective has quantified targets 2030 and 2045; the EU and the IMO (International Maritime Organization) have also set up climate goals.

The identification of the most relevant policies and measures is based on a global review of the policies and measures. Available ex-ante and ex-post analyses and studies that estimate the potential to reduce air emissions from shipping are analysed. It is shown that most policies have been implemented in Northern Europe and North America.

Specific circumstances for Sweden are considered. The visiting profile is extreme, as just a few ferries perform about two-thirds of the calls and cause about half of the air emissions while one-third of the ships call into Sweden less frequently than once a year. The share of international transport is high and growing, which implies the importance of IMO and EU policies as well as the strong cooperation with neighbouring countries to reduce the air emissions from shipping.

Air emissions of sulphur dioxides (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX) and particulate matter (PM) and greenhouse gases (GHG) from shipping in the waters in and close to Sweden 2015 are estimated based on the bottom-up approach using AIS-data (Automatic Identification System) and other sources. Four BAU-scenarios (business as usual) are developed for the target years 2030 and 2045. They comprise different assumptions about the development of transport demand, energy efficiency improvement and the fuels used. The calculated volumes of air emissions are highest when the assumptions of the Swedish public agencies are used. It is recommended to consider estimates from different sources in the next Swedish forecasts and scenarios.

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