Översiktlig strukturanalys för sjötransporter

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The purpose of the report is to analyze trends and specific events that could affect trade flows, the transport system, the sea transport volumes and the fee revenues of the Swedish Maritime Administration in 2020. In three parts the researchers have described the developments that affect the revenues of the Swedish Maritime Administration. The first part discusses present trade flows and how these are expected to develop, the second part addresses the developments in the transport system and the third part the past development of loaded and unloaded tonnes goods and the number of calls in the Swedish ports and their expected continued development. Loaded and unloaded tonnes and number of calls are the basis for the fairway dues and pilot fees levied by the Swedish Maritime Administration and therefore linked to their revenues. The researchers reviewed the literature, compiled and analyzed historical data, carried out interviews with shippers from different industries and applied a simple statistical approach to forecast the development up to 2020. Both the interviews and the statistical approach suggest that the future of freight volumes in the Swedish ports will be roughly constant with current levels or slightly increasing. The number of calls in the ports is expected to decline to 2020.

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