Maritime transport and air emissions in Sweden and business-as-usual scenarios for 2030 and 2045: based on AIS data for 2015

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This report is part of the Carrots & Sticks project, which has the main purpose of analysing policy instruments and measures that most cost-effectively can reduce emissions from maritime transport in Sweden. The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the current situation of maritime transport in Sweden and to provide business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for the future development of air emissions. By using AIS data (Automatic Identification System) for 2015, this report uses a bottom-up method to estimate air emissions from maritime transport. The report also examines how the estimated emissions contribute to the achievement of Swedish environmental quality objectives.

The environmental quality objectives of relevance when examining emissions to air from maritime transport, and which are of relevance within the Carrots & Sticks project, are Reduced climate impact, Clean air, Natural acidification only and Zero eutrophication. This report therefore focuses on the development of emissions to air related to these four objectives, which include emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen oxide (NOX).

The method used in the official statistics for estimating air emissions from maritime transport has recently (December 2019) been substantially modified. The previous estimation method had ambiguities related to the data collection process, which was the main reason for the modification of the method. Due to these uncertainties, this report develops an alternative method for estimation of emissions. The main advantages of the estimation method used in this report compared to the method used in the official statistics are that it allows a classification of the traffic types domestic, international and transit and that it covers a specific geographical area surrounding Sweden, which provides more information about where the emissions are emitted. Furthermore, recently developed emission factors are applied, which take current and decided policy instruments into account. The dataset also allows for the possibility of separating emissions emitted at sea and at berth, which can facilitate the analysis of the potential that policy instruments can have on emissions reduction.

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