Landslide risk and climate change: economic assessment of consequenses in the Göta river valley

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Stefan Falemo
Pascal Suer
Tonje Grahn

According to climate change scenarios, Swedish summers will be drier, but in large parts of Sweden there will also be increased annual precipitation, more intensive precipitation and periods with increased water flows. In many areas the risk for landslides is expected to increase. In response to this the SGI, on commission of the Environmental ministry, has started a risk analysis for the Göta river valley. The results of the analysis will be used in the surveillance of the safety along the Göta river valley. The valley is one of the most frequent landslide valleys in Sweden.

The area has a long history of anthropogenic activities such as settlements, shipping, industry, contaminated soil and infrastructure including large roads and railroads. A number of landslides occur every year. The landslide risk analysis of Göta river valley is performed by traditional technical risk analysis, i.e. a function of hazard probability and consequences of the hazard. Elements at risk in the valley include for example, human life, transport and other infrastructure, properties and industrial activities, contaminated land, agriculture and forestry, and intangibles such as biodiversity. Exposure, vulnerability and the monetary value related to the landslide are used to describe the consequence of the landslide.

This paper shows the process and structure of this consequence analysis for natural hazards. The consequence analysis methodology can be applied generic both nationally and internationally and for several types of natural hazards such as landslides and flooding.

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