Klimatförändringens påverkan på sjöfart och luftfart: översiktligt underlag för handlingsplan

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This report presents a summary analysis of how climate change may affect Swedish naval and aviation. The aim was to provide a basis for an action plan on climate adaptation within the two sectors. The action plan will be developed by the Maritime and Aviation Department of the Swedish Transport Agency.

The potential climate change outlined in this report are all based on scenarios included in the compilations of potential climate change at global level by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) and calculations of SMHI for Sweden.

The expected air temperature increase will affect the flight specifically, as increased heat reduces the aircraft's lifting ability. This leads to reduced load capacity and at very high temperatures can lead to cancellation and delay of flights.

Reduced ice coverage is expected to result in longer shipping season and reduced need for icebreaking measures. For the Baltic Sea, the reduced ice coverage may result changes in type and distribution form of the ice. Airports will have a reduced need for deicing and also for the use of salt and chemicals for road and other land improvements.

The flood risk caused by high water levels, prolonged precipitation, heavy rainfall and storms is expected to increase in large parts of Sweden. This may affect the accessibility of all road and rail traffic and there are already occasions with long shut-off times, which may affect both accessibility to and from airports and ports, as well as other activities involving flights and shipping. Ports and coastal airports may need to be adapted to maintain their activities and operations.

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