Järnvägstransportsystemets sårbarhet: struktur för modellformulering och metodutveckling

Mats Wiklund

During the months of June and July in the summer of 2000, central Norrland was hit by several storms that caused flooding in many areas. In the middle of July, the risk of land slippage was considered so great that several stretches of railway line were closed to traffic. In December 2001 Stockholm suffered a severe snowstorm that had serious consequences for railway traffic, with many departures being cancelled. These are just two indications of the vulnerability of the railway transport system.

The aim of this paper is to develop a framework to be able to analyse the vulnerability of the railway transport system. A formal definition of a railway transport system's vulnerability is the probability of the system's capacity falling to such a level that traffic is cancelled or is so delayed that the benefit of the transport to travellers or goods customers is not realised.

A model of the vulnerability of the railway transport system must show how often capacity is so reduced that severe disruptions occur, e.g. that traffic flow can no longer be maintained, or that traffic must be cancelled, and what the reason is.

The model's structure consists of two parts. The first part describes the reliability of the capacity and the second how the ability to maintain traffic of acceptable quality is affected by changes in capacity.  



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