Framtidsscenarier för självkörande fordon på väg: samhällseffekter 2030 med utblick mot 2050

Download
Anna Pernestål Brenden
Lars-Göran Mattsson

The development in the field of self-driving vehicles is quick and many vehicle manufacturers (GM, Ford, Toyota, BMW, Audi, VW and others) say they will launch a fully self-driving vehicle on the market around 2020. Although technology development will move quickly in the coming years, big questions remain regarding; how self-driving vehicles will be received by society, where they will be allowed, if they will be used primarily as private or shared vehicles, how they will handle traffic safety, privacy and cyber-security issues, and to what extent they will influence accepted commuting time, mode choice and induced travel by car.

At the same time, long-term socio-economic effects are not primarily determined by technological advances, but mostly by the role self-driving vehicles will have in our society, that is, their effects on traffic and urban planning in general. Therefore, it is important to sketch possible future scenarios for self-driving vehicles. Based on these scenarios, a discussion can follow on how regulations and policy instruments should be used in order to maximise social benefits of self-driving vehicles.

This report describes the work with future scenarios for self-driving vehicles undertaken during the winter of 2016/2017. An analysis group consisting of five people, supported by a passenger transport expert group that met for three full-day workshops, identified both a secure development towards 2030and two uncertain axes that lead to four possible scenarios for the future with self-driving vehicles in Sweden. With participation of 40 experts from 23 transport organizations, this study is unique compared to previous scenario work concerning the development of self-driving vehicles which have been based either on literature studies or expert workshops with few researchers.

 

MEET US


25-26
Apr

Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) workshop in Stockholm

An open seminar and workshop in Stockholm will be held on 25-26 April 2018. The workshop deals with the use of CBA as a basis for decision-making in the public sector. The workshop is organized by, among others, Professor Jan-Eric Nilsson, VTI.

LATEST NEWS


2018-02-19

Modal shift for an environmental lift?

Investigations in Sweden and other countries suggest a shift of goods transport from road to rail and waterborne transport to reach environmental and climate objectives. VTI is leading a new project to investigate how the modal shift can contribute and what...


2018-02-13

Automation and digitalisation are making rail competitive

Road transport is developing rapidly and its productivity has increased sharply. Rail transport, however, has not developed at the same rate. Automation and digitalisation are essential if rail freight in Europe is to survive.


2018-02-08

New research is creating a driverless logistics chain

The research project Born to Drive has come up with a system that allows new cars to move, without a driver, from the production line out to the parking area prior to being transported elsewhere. The vision is to automate the entire logistics chain from...


2018-02-05

VTI testing automation in EU project

VTI is leading a series of tests in a major EU project on automated driving. The first driving tests were carried out n a test track in Slovenia in December. The project will focus in part on acceptance among different groups in society, in part on...


2018-02-02

Freight transportation on road and rail analysed

Freight transport accounts for a large proportion of the emissions, noise and congestion produced by road traffic. Transporting freight in larger but fewer lorries could reduce the problem. At the same time it might entail freight being diverted from more...


2017-11-30

Millions for research into maritime transport and the environment

Maritime transport is a major source of emissions of harmful air pollutants and carbon dioxide. In a new project, a research team from the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) and the University of Gothenburg has received SEK 6.4...