Förslag till Nationell plan för transportsystemet 2014–2025: kvalitetsgranskning av underlaget med fokus på samhällsekonomi

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Anna Johansson
Björn Carlén
Anna Mellin

In June 2013, the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) presented a proposal for a new plan for the development of the transport system between 2014 and 2025. This new national transport plan (NTP) was a result of a government commission received in December 2012. The agency Transport Analysis (Trafikanalys) has been commissioned by the government to review the proposal and the associated documents that form the basis for decision about the plan. VTI has assisted Trafikanalys in their review. VTI has mainly focused on the documents describing the so called overall impact assessment, including results from cost benefit analyses, for individual investments. VTI has also studied how the overall impact assessments for individual investments have been considered in the construction of the proposal for a new NTP. One important observation concerning the proposal for a new NTP is that descriptions and motivations for the overall priorities being made are absent. As a result, it is not possible to state whether or not the construction of the proposed NTP follows the given directions from the government. Further, VTI comes to the conclusion that the analyzed impact assessments for individual investments have had a small effect on the composition of the NTP. This is implied by the fact that the number of new investment measures that has been prioritized is extremely low. When it comes to the impact assessments and the cost benefit analyses for individual investments, VTI can see a development towards more comparable analyses by clearly stating used parameters, calculation values, etcetera, and by providing instructions on how to carry out the analyses and how to present the results, a development that is positive. However, despite these standardization efforts, VTI notes that the documentation varies between projects. Steps of the assessment are handled differently, for example there is a variation in how non-priced effects are handled in the analyses, and requested information is missing, for example requested information about which measures are not qualified for the analysis and if there exists any interdependence between the analyzed measure and other proposed measures in the NTP.

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An open seminar and workshop in Stockholm will be held on 25-26 April 2018. The workshop deals with the use of CBA as a basis for decision-making in the public sector. The workshop is organized by, among others, Professor Jan-Eric Nilsson, VTI.

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