En granskning av samhällsekonomiska kalkyler för farledsinvesteringar: investeringar i farleder till Göteborgs hamn, Norrköpings hamn och Gävle hamn

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On behalf of the Swedish National Audit Office, VTI has analyzed the cost benefit analyses (CBAs) of three fairway investments. The CBAs for the fairways into the ports of Gothenburg, Norrköping and Gävle have been analyzed from a comparative and principal perspective. For the fairway investments to the port of Gothenburg, an ex post analysis has been performed by VTI as well.

The results of the comparative studies show that there are a number of principal problems in the three CBAs. There is a lack of analysis of why it is necessary to make these investments instead of doing something more limited. The investments are motivated from a regional perspective rather than discussing and showing the overarching benefit for society. Moreover, we conclude that the methods used vary a lot between the three CBAs and that the discussions about central assumptions are lacking, i.e. concerning the development of the ship sizes.

The ex post-analysis for the fairway investment in Gothenburg shows that the benefits from reduced transshipment costs were exaggerated in the original analysis. The total benefit in our ex post analysis is 3.3 billion SEK compared to the 8.3 billion SEK in the original analysis. At the same time, the investment costs were reduced to 0.9 billion SEK compared to the expected 2.34 billion SEK. Altogether, this means that the net present value ratio changes to 2.7 in our ex post analysis compared to the original 2.6.

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